Tivo, sense of guilt, and opportunity cost

This story from CNN.com talks about an interesting phenomenon but the reporter seemed to have a hard time applying the concept of opportunity cost.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/SHOWBIZ/TV/12/02/tivo.guilt/index.html

My new media portfolio -- before and after!

OMG, I lost quite a lot of money - 45% to be exact. I have only $5,523 left.

Look back at my picks (red text is the current status):

(with confidence???)
Amazon: 50 shares x $72.41 (now $41.51) = $3,621 (now $2,075)
Down 40%

(with trust and some excitement. Well...)
Google: 9 shares x $447.44 (now $270.3) = $4,027 (now $2,432)
Down 42%

(based on perceived potential), perception is just perception
Baidu: 8 shares x $267.7 (now $114.72) = $2,142 (now $917.76)
Down 59%

(with curiosity only), which is quite expensive
NYTimes: 14 shares x $14.72 (now $7.13)= $206 (now $99.8)
Down 52%

Total: $9996 ($5,523)

I guess we are all happy this is just an exercise. And the lesson is: Don't trust anyone, including your professor.

2008 Nobel Prize Winner in Economic Sciences: Paul Krugman

His page on wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Krugman

His column on NYTIMES.com
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/paul-krugman-wins-economics-nobel/?hp

Interview on CNBC:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Byu_0VqaIXY&feature=related

The Long Tail Wasted

The newspaper industry somehow has been reluctant acknowledge they have a long-distance audience outside the geographic market defined by their print edition. The long-distance audience is their long tail.

According to empirical research based on the U.S. data (Sylvie & Chyi, 2007), online traffic from outside the market accounts for about 50% of total page views and minutes a newspaper site gets. In terms of unique visitors, the outside-market share ranges from 27% to 35%. For some Asian newspapers, I believe the percentages are even higher.

Just like what Netflix did with Bollywood films, the Web provides a natural platform for newspapers to go beyond their geographic constraints and reach users worldwide (in big numbers). But newspapers did almost nothing for these users, who are probably the most loyal users among all.

Therefore, the long tail is wasted and you ask why the industry is dying?

Making sense of secondary data

Different ways of interpreting similar market data:

A typical story on increase in newspaper site usage:
http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/search/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003875202

A better story with meaningful analysis:
http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/top-us-newspaper-sites-see-more-visitors-shorter-stays/

There is still room for more context information (example: original Excel file).

---

Other examples:
Interesting theory/analysis supported by market data

http://publishing2.com/2008/09/15/drudge-report-news-site-that-sends-readers-away-with-links-has-highest-engagement/

http://www.collisiondetection.net/mt/archives/2005/04/many_newspapers.php

By whom?

Two interesting stories about Google services

On YouTube's revenue model:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/AAPL-GOOG-YHOO-MSFT-apple-AMZN/index/a/19419/from/yahoo

On GMail Goggle:
http://biz.yahoo.com/portfolio/081009/tag_www_portfolio_com_2008_5_14791.html?.v=1

Secondary data available online

Pew Research Center for the People and the Press -- Biennial Media Consumption 2004, 2006, 2008 (coming up)
http://people-press.org/dataarchive/

Pew Internet and American Life Project
http://www.pewinternet.org/datasets.asp

ABC -- Newspaper/Magazine Circulation Data
http://www.accessabc.com/products/freereports.htm

Newspaper Association of America -- Trends and Numbers: Newspaper Web sites (Reach by DMA)
(Click on menu items on the top and on the left for more stuff)
http://www.naa.org/TrendsandNumbers/Newspaper-Websites.aspx

Scarborough:
The 2008 Scarborough Newspaper Audience Ratings Report (Combined audience numbers for newspapers in DMAs)
Understanding the Digital Savvy Consumer (Guess which city is the most digi-savvy in the U.S.?)
http://www.scarborough.com/freeStudies.php

Newspaper Next 2.0 --
1. Market Selector
2. Online Spending Analysis
3. 2007 Online Spending Per DMA
4. Future Tools (one for each quintile)
5. WebAudits (one for each quintile)
http://www.newspapernext.org/2008/02/online_revenue_resources.htm

Borrell Free Data -- 2008 U.S. DMA Ad Spending (newer but not as detailed as Newspaper Next 2.0)
http://www.borrellassociates.com/freedata.aspx

Newspaper Association of America -- The Newspaper Audience Database or NADbase (membership required)
http://www.naa.org/Resources/Articles/Circulation-The-Newspaper-Audience-Database-or-NADbase.aspx

ABC's Audience-FAX online database (registration required):
Data on newspapers' average circulation, average print and online readership, total combined audience, and total unique Web site users as well as a variety of print demographic information for both national and local newspapers.
http://abcas3.accessabc.com/scarborough/login.aspx

ABC's Audience-FAX^* eTrends Tool (registration required):
The tool is designed to allow users to create trending reports by reporting period on newspaper's average circulation, average print and online readership, total combined audience, and total unique Web site users.
http://abcas3.accessabc.com/audience-fax/default.aspx

Blue Man Group

Research critique

If you want to share your research critique here anonymously, you may leave a comment here.

My stock portfolio

I'd like to do this assignment too!

My picks:

(with confidence)
Amazon: 50 shares x $72.41 = 3621

(with trust and some excitement)
Google: 9 shares x $447.44 = 4027

(based on perceived potential)
Baidu: 8 shares x $267.7 = 2142

(with curiosity only)
NYTimes: 14 shares x $14.72 = 206

Total: $9996

Current status: US ad spending in steepest drop since 2001

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN2437097620080924?rpc=44&sp=true

This may change many of the assumptions made regarding newspapers' online and print revenue projections.

Media firms' financial indicators

This NYTimes article compares Google and Microsoft across several indicators:
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/04/google-at-age-10/

A recent article on how Tribune Co. measured journalist productivity:
http://www.ajr.org/Article.asp?id=4594

Welcome to J395!

Hi all,

This blog would serve as the platform for us to exchange great ideas in J395!

A few things to do here:

1. Respond to readings

Please post a short response to assigned readings (by 5 p.m. the day before we discuss the readings in class).

The purpose is to make sure you read the readings as well as to provoke analytical/critical/creative thinking on issues to be discussed in class.

You should first read through the assigned readings and then share your thoughts/questions/examples with us. If you have an online example, please include the link in your post.

Please label your posts using both "readings" and "your screen name" (please be consistent).

2. Before Wednesday, please share with us three websites where we may find relevant news/ information about the particular new media industries/technologies you are interested in.

Thank you!

(If you have questions on blogging, we'll figure things out on Wednesday.)